by Darren Moore
Reform UK have been the standout story in the next general election betting market for well over a year now.
They shortened dramatically back in late 2024/early 2025, surging into favouritism on Betfair Exchange’s “Most Seats” market. Since then, the price has stabilised and held strong through 2025 and into February 2026 – a sign of sustained punter confidence rather than fleeting hype.
The latest snapshot from the Exchange shows Reform trading at around 2.36 (back price), with a massive £876,000 matched on them alone in recent trading windows.
This steadiness reflects consistent polling leads for Nigel Farage’s party throughout the past year – often in the high 20s to low 30s% vote share – while Labour and Conservatives have struggled to regain ground amid internal issues and voter fatigue.
Current Odds for Most Seats (Betfair Exchange & Aggregated Bookies – mid-February 2026)
Implied probabilities calculated from back prices (approx: 1 / decimal odds × 100%):
- Reform UK: 2.36 (≈ 42-44% chance)
- Labour: 3.50-3.75 (≈ 27-29% chance)
- Conservatives: 5.50 (≈ 18% chance)
- Green Party: 20+ (≈ 5% or less)
- Liberal Democrats: 50/1+ (≈ 2% chance)
Reform’s price equates to roughly 42% implied probability at 2.36 – solid favourite status without being odds-on, leaving room for value on both sides.
Quick visual bar (implied % chance):
- ████████████████████ Reform UK~43%
- █████████████ Labour ~28%
- ████████ Conservatives~18%
- █████ Others ~11%
Why the Price Has Stayed Steady
Reform’s odds tightened sharply over a year ago on the back of polling surges, defections chatter, and local election gains. But unlike volatile short-term markets, they’ve remained anchored through 2025.
No major collapse in support, no dramatic Labour recovery – just persistent dissatisfaction with the main parties keeping Reform in pole position. High traded volume (£875k+ on Reform recently) shows money continuing to flow in, preventing big drifts.
Upcoming By-Elections & Tests Ahead
The next real-world indicators:
- Gorton and Denton by-election (26 Feb 2026): Greens have been favourites here recently, but Reform remains in the mix (drifting slightly in some updates but still competitive). A strong showing would reinforce their national momentum.
- Ongoing local by-elections in February/March.
- May 2026 locals (including Scottish/Welsh elements): These could provide another big momentum swing if Reform performs well.
A Reform breakthrough in any of these would likely see their Most Seats price shorten further; underperformance could open laying opportunities.
What It Means for Betting Moving Forward
Reform’s year-long stability makes the Most Seats market one of the more reliable long-term plays in UK politics betting right now.
With the next general election likely 2029 (unless early), punters have time to assess – but the weight of money suggests the market believes Reform’s insurgency is here to stay.
Watch related markets too:
- No Overall Majority still favourite (~4/5)
- Reform Majority around 13/8-9/4 on some books
- Farage odds for next Prime Minister drifting but viable at 7/1-9/1
Politics betting markets like this deliver great long-term value and drama – great for betting on the UK general election, or tracking the long game.
* Odds and volumes approximate/live as of mid-February 2026; always verify on Betfair Exchange. Bet responsibly.
Darren is an experienced sports writer with decades in the betting industry, having worked with the Racing Post and Ladbrokes on both sides of the counter.
