The 2026 US Open draw has made the outright markets more interesting before the main draw starts on Sunday.
Jannik Sinner is out, Carlos Alcaraz returns after five months without a competitive match, and several of the strongest women have landed in the same half. You can follow the latest US Open match odds and BF Tennis Ratings throughout the tournament, but the draw adds another layer that the numbers alone cannot capture.
Two prices also stand out before the first ball: Frances Tiafoe at 33/1 and Sara Bejlek at 100/1. They are not formal Betfinder Tips Record selections, but both make the pre-tournament shortlist.
Two US Open Prices We Like
| Player | Price* | Why they interest us |
|---|---|---|
| Frances Tiafoe | 33/1 | Cincinnati finalist, home advantage and a workable opening section |
| Sara Bejlek | 100/1 | Abu Dhabi champion and Cincinnati semi-finalist on hard courts |
*Bet365 prices checked 28 August 2026. Odds can move.
Neither has an easy route to the trophy. At these prices, they don’t need to look like the most likely winners to be interesting.
Alcaraz Tops Our Ratings, But Rust Is the Problem
Carlos Alcaraz has the highest BF Tennis Rating among our featured men at 80, backed by Hard Court 98, Return 90 and Pressure 84. Those ratings are calculated from Betfinder’s underlying tennis data rather than manually assigned scores.
The unknown is match sharpness.
Alcaraz has not played competitively since suffering a wrist injury during the clay swing. The US Open confirms he is returning after a five-month layoff.
His first week looks manageable, but the projected quarter-final is Ben Shelton, with Novak Djokovic and Daniil Medvedev among the potential semi-final threats. Every former men’s US Open champion in this year’s field sits in Alcaraz’s half.
At 13/8 with Bet365, the market is asking you to pay for peak Alcaraz before we have seen match-fit Alcaraz.
Zverev Won the Draw, But Not Necessarily the Bet
Alexander Zverev is the clearest beneficiary of Sinner’s withdrawal.
The top seed avoids Alcaraz, Djokovic and Shelton until the final. If the leading seeds hold, his projected quarter-final is Alex de Minaur.
His BF profile supports some of that optimism. Zverev scores 87 for Serve and 92 on Hard Court.
The weaker numbers are Pressure 50 and Form 62. That matters at 3/1, where there is not much room for a contender who fails to take advantage of the favourable half.
The draw makes Zverev more attractive. It doesn’t automatically make 3/1 value.
Tiafoe at 33/1 Is More Interesting
Frances Tiafoe offers a different proposition.
He reached the Cincinnati final immediately before New York, beating three Top-15 opponents during that run. The US Open also describes his opening section as relatively favourable: Martin Damm first, with No. 22 Valentin Vacherot the other seed on his route towards the fourth round.
It gets nasty after that.
Daniil Medvedev is the seeded fourth-round opponent, Djokovic could await in the quarter-finals and Alcaraz in the semi-finals.
That explains why 33/1 is available despite the Cincinnati run.
We still prefer that profile to blindly taking a short price about a favourite. Tiafoe has recent hard-court evidence, a New York crowd behind him and enough price to compensate for the difficult second week.
Betfinder lean: Tiafoe at 33/1.
The Women’s Draw Favours Sabalenka
Aryna Sabalenka has arguably received the biggest structural advantage among the leading women.
Sabalenka, Jessica Pegula and Wimbledon champion Linda Noskova occupy the top half. Coco Gauff, Iga Swiatek, Elena Rybakina and Mirra Andreeva are all in the bottom half.
Sabalenka’s BF profile is formidable too: BF 80, Serve 81, Hard Court 100 and Pressure 89.
Yet recent form creates a disagreement. Swiatek has a Form rating of 96, while Gauff is at 99. Sabalenka sits at 72.
So the draw says Sabalenka. Recent form says look harder at the other side.
Bejlek Is the 100/1 Outsider Worth Watching
Sara Bejlek is the bigger-price name that catches our eye.
The 20-year-old qualified for February’s Abu Dhabi WTA 500 and went on to win the tournament, her first WTA title. She then reached the Cincinnati semi-finals this month before losing to Gauff.
That is strong hard-court evidence for someone priced at 100/1 with Bet365.
There is an obvious catch. Bejlek has landed in Gauff’s section of the draw, and the pair could collide again if both progress. The official draw places Bejlek at No. 28 seed in the same section as Gauff.
At 100/1, though, perfection is not the requirement. We want evidence that the outsider is capable of beating better-ranked opponents on this surface.
Bejlek has supplied it twice this season.
Betfinder outsider lean: Bejlek at 100/1.
The First Week Should Answer the Biggest Questions
There is no shortage of bigger names available at shorter prices. Alcaraz remains our highest-rated man. Sabalenka has the strongest combination of rating and draw among the leading women.
But the interesting betting questions sit underneath them.
Can Alcaraz immediately handle five-set tennis after five months out? Can Zverev exploit the easier half? Does Tiafoe carry his Cincinnati form into New York? And is Bejlek’s latest hard-court run another sign that 100/1 underrates her?
Our US Open tennis hub will update with men’s and women’s match odds throughout the tournament, alongside BF Tennis Ratings and contender data.
The draw has given us the questions. The first few rounds should tell us which prices deserve another look.
