NFL Super Bowl odds tell two stories after Week 2. DraftKings cut the 2–0 Vikings from +5000 preseason to +2800 on 22 September, while the 0–2 Buccaneers remained at +5500. Two days later, our Betfair Exchange screenshot showed Minnesota at 38.0 and Tampa Bay at 120.0 to back.
The records explain why the teams caught our attention. The gap between the displayed prices is the more useful betting lesson: a bookmaker’s odds move tells you little about the best price you can actually take.
What Did DraftKings Change?
The table below tracks one sportsbook’s Super Bowl winner prices from preseason to 22 September 2026. It shows how DraftKings reacted to early results; it does not claim these were the best odds available across all betting sites.
| Team | Record | DraftKings preseason | DraftKings 22 September |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vikings | 2–0 | +5000 | +2800 |
| Eagles | 2–0 | +1700 | +1700 |
| Buccaneers | 0–2 | +5500 | +5500 |
| Chargers | 0–2 | +1700 | +4500 |
Minnesota shortened sharply. The Chargers drifted sharply. Philadelphia and Tampa Bay held their preseason prices at this bookmaker. So far, straightforward.
The catch is that a price history at one book is not a shopping guide. DraftKings’ +2800 converts to decimal 29.0, and +5500 converts to 56.0. The later Betfair screen showed 38.0 and 120.0 respectively. The quotes were taken on different dates, so they cannot measure a live sportsbook-versus-exchange gap. They do show why checking another accessible market matters before accepting a futures price.
The amount beneath each blue back price matters. Betfair showed £23 available at 120.0 for Tampa Bay and £132 at 38.0 for Minnesota. A larger Buccaneers bet would not necessarily be matched entirely at 120.0; the next displayed back prices were 110.0 and 100.0. Check the available stake and your commission before comparing an exchange price with a bookmaker’s fixed odds.
Does Tampa Bay’s Record Deserve Those Bigger Odds?
Tampa Bay’s 0–2 record hides two competitive games. The Buccaneers lost 33–27 to Cincinnati and 23–19 to Cleveland. Baker Mayfield lost three fumbles against the Bengals, though, so it would be generous to dismiss the defeats as simple bad luck. NFL Next Gen Stats estimated those fumbles cost Tampa Bay a combined 32.9 percentage points of win probability.
Minnesota has earned its wins, particularly through defence. It held Chicago to three points and forced two turnovers in Week 2. But that game was played in steady rain, ended 9–3 and featured Carson Wentz at quarterback. Kyler Murray is set to return against Tampa Bay on Sunday. Those details matter more to the next matchup than the bare 2–0 and 0–2 records.
The bigger Buccaneers exchange price is more attractive than a shorter price on the same outcome, assuming you can match a useful stake. It does not prove Tampa Bay will outperform its odds. To call it a value bet, we would still need our own probability estimate.
Tonight’s Game Offers a Quick Reminder
Atlanta is also 0–2, including a 34–3 loss to Carolina. Michael Penix Jr. is set to make his season debut against Green Bay tonight, while the Packers have ruled out four players. If you are pricing that game from last week’s scores alone, you are missing the team news.
Betfinder take: Track how odds move, then shop for the price you can use. On an exchange, check the back column, the amount available beneath the odds and your commission rate before comparing returns. Betfair.com is unavailable to customers located in the US, so readers there need to compare operators available in their state. Our NFL betting page has the latest match odds and futures to start that check.
