Champions League draws have occurred less frequently than bookmaker odds suggested over the past five seasons, according to Betfinder’s analysis of 696 matches.
Our study found 127 draws against an expected 154.4, based on bookmaker probabilities adjusted to remove the betting margin. That’s a shortfall of 17.7%.
An expected draw isn’t a prediction of an individual result. We calculated the probability of a draw in each match from bookmaker odds, removed the bookmaker margin, and added those probabilities together to produce an expected total across all 696 fixtures.
For anyone regularly backing the draw in Champions League matches, the returns made uncomfortable reading.
What Happened to Draw Betting Returns?
Backing the draw in every match in our sample, staking £1 each time at the median available sportsbook price, would have produced the following results:
| Measure | Result |
|---|---|
| Matches analysed | 696 |
| Actual draws | 127 |
| Expected draws | 154.4 |
| Actual draw percentage | 18.2% |
| Expected draw percentage | 22.2% |
| Total stakes | £696 |
| Net loss | £170.98 |
| Return on investment | −24.6% |
The figures cover Champions League matches from 2021/22 through 2025/26, including both the old group-stage format and the newer league phase.
A negative return isn’t unusual when betting at bookmaker odds. Their margin gives them a built-in advantage.
What caught our attention was the gap between the number of draws predicted by the market and the number that actually occurred.
The Gap Widened After the Champions League Expanded
The first three seasons were relatively close to market expectations. The biggest differences appeared in the two seasons following the competition’s expansion.
The 2024/25 season stands out. Our sample contained 182 matches, with bookmaker probabilities suggesting approximately 39.9 draws. Only 25 finished level.
In 2025/26, there were 32 draws against 39.1 expected across 180 matches.
That doesn’t establish a connection between the competition’s new format and the lower draw count. Team strengths, fixture selection and ordinary statistical variation could all contribute. Still, the contrast is worth noting.
Does This Mean You Should Lay Champions League Draws?
Not necessarily. Laying the draw means taking the opposite side of the bet, but the economics are different. A losing lay bet can cost considerably more than the £1 stake used in our backing calculations.
Exchange commission, available lay prices and liability all matter too. Our research tested backing returns, not a lay-betting strategy.
There’s another distinction: the historical figures don’t tell us whether any particular upcoming Champions League draw is overpriced.
The sample covers most, but not all, Champions League fixtures played during those seasons.
What Our Champions League Study Covered
Betfinder analysed 696 matches across the five completed seasons from 2021/22 to 2025/26.
Historical pre-match 1X2 odds were sourced from The Odds API, with final scores cross-checked against the OpenFootball Champions League archive. Betfinder then analysed the data independently to calculate expected draws and historical betting returns.
We used median sportsbook prices, excluding betting exchanges, and calculated returns from a £1 flat stake on every draw. Expected draw counts were calculated by adjusting bookmaker probabilities to remove their margin.
The sample covers most, but not all, Champions League fixtures played during those seasons.
Our research tested backing returns, not a lay-betting strategy. Exchange commission, available lay prices and liability would all affect the results of laying draws.
Compare the Next Champions League Odds
The historical numbers give us something to think about, but every new fixture brings its own prices and probabilities.
Before backing or opposing a draw, compare the available prices rather than relying on the five-season trend.
Check the latest fixtures and bookmaker markets on our Champions League betting hub.
Research period: 2021/22–2025/26. Historical findings are not predictions of future results.
